States of Scarcity and the Atmospheric Sink

Geopolitics in the Middle East is far from simple, ideology, history, personal ties, and strategic calculus all combine to make the region one of perpetual conflict. But the situation redoubles in complexity when scientific matters enter the equation. The transformation of Israel from a “water-rich” to a “water-scarce” state, as explored by Alatout, as well as its central role in building institutions and identities, is one such complex process. Alatout's research provides insight into Middle Eastern history and politics, and a model for why contemporary attempts to regulate carbon dioxide are so controversial.

Zionism, the foundational narrative of Israel, is predicated on a notion of plenty, a Biblical land of “milk and honey” which could easily absorb the exiles of the great Jewish diaspora. The old school of water management, personified by Simcha Blass, was pioneering in orientation. The ideology of Jewish settlement required an abundant supply of water, and if water was not forthcoming, than it would be made forthcoming by exploratory drilling and grand water works. Israel had water resources of 3000 MCM/yr, an ample bounty.

Aaron Weiner represented a new school of thought, which based on empirical measurement of water sources, estimated that there was a mere 1500 MCM/yr. Water was the limiting factor of growth in Israel, and consequently would have to be managed by a central state bureaucracy, would have to be secured against Arab aggression, and would have to be allocated to the most economically productive sectors. “Water scarcity was the 'natural' alibi and lent its legitimizing power to a group of Israelis who were in favor of defining an Israeli identity in non-Zionist terms, in industrial rather than agricultural terms, and in favor of urban development rather than agricultural development.”

I'm not going to talk about water politics in terms of Israel and Palestine, simply because I only know that allocating these limited resources is a contentious issue. But more to the point, consider attempts to regulate CO2, which have many of the same ideological consequences. The status quo position is that the atmosphere is a limitless sink, that industrial activity does not significantly. But anything that says otherwise, even something as simple as measuring CO2, carries the implicit position that the atmosphere is a finite resource, and that to control it some sort of central bureaucracy must be set up. This is why climate science is so contentious, because even before the results are in, acknowledging the possibility of results creates new institutional demands, demands anathema to much of American politics.

And oh yeah, the question you've all been wondering: How much water is there? According to the official accounts, somewhere between 1500 and 1800 MCM. So it appears that Weiner was correct. Water shortage is the State of Israel.